t’s not too soon to talk about the next election cycle, the one in between Presidential elections. “Mid”-terms.
For Data folks it will be the first time since 2020 that we can compare statistics from the previous mid-term and have the precincts and districts line-up. No more extrapolation due to re-districting and re-precincting, for a while anyway.
Turnout in LD3 will be lower than this year. There is a 9% difference between Presidential year turnout and Mid-term turnout in this district. Elsewhere the difference is 20-25%.
For the first time since 2018 Arizona will not have a US Senate contest. Mark Kelly isn’t up for re-election until 2028. But we will have another run at our two US House districts, CD1 and CD8.
We’ll have our first Gubernatorial “slate” with both a Governor and Lt. Governor on the ticket. Who will Katie Hobbs choose as a running mate?
Phoenix District 2 is getting bluer. Will it be enough to field a strong Democrat for City Council? Let’s retire Jim Waring once and for all, then get some good people appointed to Boards and Commissions in Phoenix.
Fontes, Mayes, Hobbs – all back? Hopefully. Maybe Democrats can knock out Kimberly Yee while we’re at it and send Tom Horne out to pasture for the last time.
The geo-coded center of all voters of LD3 is near Pinnacle Peak and Scottsdale Road. Specifically, it’s right on top of the new bridge over Rawhide Wash on Miller. Shifts in our population won’t be much in just two year’s time, but it will be influenced by new high density housing already being constructed around Cavasson and everywhere on Legacy Blvd. Recently announced apartments at Dove Valley and I17 could also be built by November 2026. Development of large parcels of State Land on North Pima and on Carefree Highway may take a while, even with the influence of Taiwan Semiconductor. Expect a big cooling-off of growth in Rio Verde (finally!) now that Trilogy is built-out and there is a cap on the new water service in the Foothills. Will our district center shift? Not too much.
LD3 is the second largest voter population in the state, surpassed a bit by District 17 around Oro Valley. We will continue to be the largest in Maricopa County.
We punch above our weight. Let’s do the same in 2026.
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