Snack No. 52.
A whole year of Data Snacks.
Data is only helpful if it shows you how to create a strategy or modify one. In the last year, we haven’t changed district or precinct boundaries, but we have watched a change in Voter Registration. The buzz right now is the shift of voters from active status to inactive.
According to the latest data from the Secretary of State, 14% of Democrats and 12% of Republicans are on the inactive list.
About half of them have reported an address change to the USPS but didn’t change their voter registration. As long as the person has voted in in the last two election cycles (4 years), the County Recorder has tried 2 contacts by mail before moving the voter to Inactive.
Of the registered Democrats on the inactive list (those registered here for at least one election) about 50% have not voted in the last three election cycles. Nada. Not in 2022, 2020 or 2018. They didn’t show up to vote Trump out…… or they are no longer there.
Interestingly, there are voters showing as Inactive who did vote in 2022. 58% of them have addresses with an apartment or unit number. Clearly, these are more transient people. A few in this category are voters who live in an apartment complex but have no unit number. They won’t get a ballot without it.
In LD3, the number of Inactive Democrats who haven’t moved according to the USPS, but who voted in 2022 is only 1%. A few are in our apartment-dense precincts but surprisingly, the bulk are in Cave Creek. We regularly follow up to see if there has been a recent home sale or death.
The very low number of “Inactive, but voted” may be true for LD3, but is not the case everywhere. Around ASU there are 10 times as many.
A NOTE OF APPRECIATION. Thank you all for tuning in to Data Snacks from LD3 this past year. I hope you’ve learn something new – big or small – about our District, County, and State.
Emily Wilson
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